Goldman Sachs: The Carry Trade That Caused the 2024 Crash Is Back
📊 GS — Piyasa Yorumu
▼ down · 60%Goldman Sachs' announcement that the carry trade, which historically caused major crashes, is making a comeback could create unease in the market. Although the RSI at 58 indicates a neutral zone in technical indicators, the MACD hovering near the signal line and the price staying above the 20-day moving average increase the risk of a short-term correction. The negative perception of the news may lead investors to be cautious and trigger profit-taking. However, the price remaining above the 50-day moving average suggests that any decline could be limited.
📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu
■ neutral · 60%The news headline indicates that carry trade, which caused a major crash in the past, is making a comeback. This could reduce risk appetite in the markets and generate short-term demand for DXY. However, technical indicators are sending mixed signals: RSI is at 56.7, in neutral territory; MACD is above zero but close to the signal line; and the price is trading above SMA20 and SMA50. This suggests that the uptrend may continue, but momentum is weakening. Short-term volatility triggered by the news prevents the technical picture from providing a clear direction. Therefore, DXY is expected to trade sideways over a 1-3 day horizon.
📊 USDJPY — Piyasa Yorumu
▼ down · 60%The news indicates that carry trade, which caused a major crash in the past, is making a comeback. This could lead to a strengthening of the yen (weakening of the dollar) in USDJPY. Technical indicators also support this view: RSI is in the weak zone at 44, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is trading below the SMA50. However, the price hovering near the SMA20 may provide some short-term support. Therefore, while a downward move is expected, the pace of the decline may be limited.
📊 EURUSD — Piyasa Yorumu
▼ down · 60%EURUSD is trading at 1.1416, below its 20- and 50-day moving averages. The RSI is in weak territory at 40.5, and the MACD is below its signal line, supporting a short-term bearish trend. Goldman Sachs' warning that carry trade is making a comeback could reduce risk appetite, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on EURUSD. However, the pace of decline may be limited, as the market may have already partially priced in such news.