Alcoa Cuts Alumina Production Forecast, Shares Fall

Alcoa's reduction in its alumina production forecast could heighten concerns over the company's short-term profitability. Technical indicators also point to weakness: the RSI is approaching oversold territory at 38.5, while the MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 3% decline over the past 24 hours suggests continued selling pressure. The downtrend is expected to persist in the near term.

Although Alcoa's reduction in alumina production forecasts has created expectations of a tightening in aluminum supply, the decline in its stock price may indicate weakening demand. Technically, the price has fallen 5.1% in the last 24 hours to 3178, slipping below the 20-day moving average (3359). While the RSI at 53 remains in neutral territory, the MACD line staying above the signal line preserves the potential for a short-term recovery. However, the high volume of the decline and the price remaining below the SMA20 suggest that selling pressure could persist. In the short term, a continuation of the downtrend appears more likely.