CBRT Survey: Year-End Inflation Expectation Rises to 29.21%

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) released its July 2026 Market Participants Survey, shedding light on market expectations for inflation and interest rates. According to the survey, the year-end inflation expectation increased compared to the previous period, reaching 29.21%. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation also recorded a limited increase during the same period. On the other hand, the 24-month-ahead inflation expectation saw a decline. This can be interpreted as optimism that inflationary pressures will ease in the medium term. Participants expect the policy rate to remain at its current level of 37% in July. USD/TRY exchange rate expectations also formed a significant part of the survey. Market participants forecast the USD/TRY exchange rate to be 51.55 by the end of the year. This expectation indicates that the current trend in exchange rates will continue. The survey results show that the market maintains a cautious stance on inflation and interest rates in the short term, but paints an optimistic picture for the medium term. The Central Bank's monetary policy decisions and inflation outlook will continue to shape market expectations in the coming period. This is not investment advice.