Market Participants Survey: Inflation and Dollar Expectations Rise, Rate Cut Expected in September

The Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) indicated an upward revision in year-end inflation and dollar/TL expectations. According to the survey, the year-end 2024 inflation expectation rose from 29.14% to 29.21%, while the dollar/TL exchange rate expectation increased from 51.47 TL to 51.55 TL. The survey results show that market participants expect the policy rate to remain unchanged in July. However, a rate cut is anticipated in September, when the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be held. This is associated with expectations of improvement in the inflation outlook. The increase in market participants' inflation and exchange rate expectations points to ongoing economic uncertainties. The rise in the dollar/TL expectation, in particular, reflects potential pressure on the exchange rate. The survey reveals that participants maintain their expectation of a rate cut in the short term. This is not investment advice.

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 65%

The news headline includes rising inflation and dollar expectations, as well as a forecast for an interest rate cut in September. This could create upward pressure on the USDTRY pair in the short term. On technical indicators, the RSI is at 42.2, in neutral territory, while the MACD is below the signal line but near zero. Since the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the short-term trend remains bullish. However, the expectation of an interest rate cut and rising inflation could lead to depreciation in the Turkish lira, making a continued upward move likely.

RSI 14

42.2

MACD

0.01

24h Δ

0.05%

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