Market's Year-End Inflation Expectation Rises

According to the results of the July Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), an upward revision was observed in market actors' year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase expectations. Survey participants raised their 2024 year-end inflation forecast to 29.21 percent from 29.14 percent in the previous survey period. This increase indicates a partial deterioration in the market's assessment of the inflation outlook. This expectation is closely monitored as a key indicator for the CBRT's monetary policy stance and inflation-fighting strategy. The survey results reveal that participants are signaling that price pressures will persist. This slight rise in market participants' inflation expectations is shaped particularly by the impact of exchange rate movements and cost-driven pressures. Experts emphasize that the course of inflation will be decisive for the central bank's interest rate decisions in the coming period. This is not investment advice.