Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Exceed $120 if Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist

GS shares have declined 7.68% in the last 24 hours, with the RSI approaching oversold territory at 33.3. The MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, technically confirming a bearish trend. Although the news headline highlights geopolitical risks, which could positively impact GS's energy exposure through oil prices, the current technical weakness may increase downward pressure in the short term. Therefore, the bearish trend is expected to continue in the near term.

The news headline indicates that oil prices could rise significantly if geopolitical risks increase. Technical indicators present a neutral outlook, with the RSI just above 50, the MACD below its signal line, and the price balanced between the SMA20 and SMA50. In the short term, an upward move can be expected due to the positive sentiment generated by the news, but the upside may be limited as the technical picture does not provide a clear signal. Therefore, while the direction is upward, the confidence level is moderate.

Goldman Sachs' warning that oil could surpass $120 in the event of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may increase the geopolitical risk premium and create upward pressure in the short term. Technically, while the RSI is just above 50 and the MACD is below the signal line, the price remains above the SMA20 and SMA50. This suggests the current uptrend could continue. However, the fact that the news is being priced in without any concrete disruption yet, along with weak momentum in the indicators, indicates that the upside may be limited. Therefore, a moderate rise can be expected in the short term.

The news presents a scenario that could increase the geopolitical risk premium and push oil prices higher. XOM stock has risen 3.36% in the last 24 hours, with an RSI of 63, not yet approaching overbought territory. Although the MACD remains below the signal line, momentum appears positive. In the short term, the upward trend may continue driven by this news, but surpassing the $120 level remains uncertain.