The Dollar's Safe‑Haven Rally Fades: Impact of the US‑Iran Ceasefire

Deutsche Bank AG and Wells Fargo & Co. have stated that the dollar’s surge as a safe‑haven in a war‑time environment has now ended. The banks highlighted that the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is steering investors toward riskier assets. The uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire has increased risk appetite in the markets. This shift has led to a decline in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, while providing a backdrop for riskier assets to appreciate. A modest depreciation of the dollar is expected, and investors should consider restructuring their portfolios to reassess risk distribution. A tilt toward riskier asset classes could alter market dynamics. Investors are advised to re‑evaluate the dollar’s safe‑haven role and diversify their holdings. This is not investment advice.

📊 WFC — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 0%

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RSI 14

42.5

MACD

-0.66

24h Δ

-5.45%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news of a US-Iran ceasefire is reducing the risk premium, thereby weakening the dollar's safe-haven status. The DXY increased by 0.24% over 24 hours, but with the RSI at 57.6 and the MACD nearly at zero, it indicates the index has not entered overbought territory. The SMA20 is slightly above the SMA50, yet it gives the impression that the short-term trend may soften. Within 1-3 days, it is anticipated that the DXY could experience a slight decline alongside the reduction in risk. This movement may lead to a depreciation of the dollar against other currencies.

RSI 14

57.6

MACD

0.03

24h Δ

0.24%

📊 NDX — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 55%

Following the US‑Iran ceasefire, the dollar is weakening, risk appetite is increasing, and technology indices may receive support. However, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is in an overbought zone with an RSI of 77 and its MACD is below the signal line, indicating limited upside potential in the short term. Over a 1‑ to 3‑day horizon, the price is expected to stay above short‑term moving averages, but the likelihood of a sharp rally remains low.

RSI 14

77.3

MACD

271.55

24h Δ

4.31%

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