Middle East Conflict Expands, Bonds Send Warning on Warsh's Credibility | Opening Trade 30.07.2026

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East increases risks to oil supply, potentially driving BRENT prices higher. Technically, while the price is trading just below the 20-day moving average (90.60), staying above the 50-day average (88.40) maintains the medium-term uptrend. The RSI at 50.5 is in neutral territory, and the MACD is below the signal line but above zero, indicating weak momentum without a bearish signal. Geopolitical tensions could create buying pressure in the short term, but for the uptrend to sustain, the price needs to break above the 20-day average. Therefore, an upward move is expected, though confidence is moderate.

The expansion of the conflict in the Middle East increases risks to oil supply, potentially driving WTI prices higher. However, technical indicators present mixed signals: the RSI is neutral at 49, the MACD is below its signal line, and the price is below the 20-day moving average. This could limit upside potential and cause prices to fluctuate in the $83-84 range in the short term. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks remain the key factor supporting upward movement.

The widening conflict in the Middle East is raising concerns about oil supply, potentially driving short-term demand for energy stocks such as XOM. Technically, the RSI is neutral at 57, while the MACD is above its signal line and positive, suggesting upward momentum could continue. The price is trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, providing short-term support. However, warnings from the bond market and a decline in overall risk appetite may limit the upside. Therefore, I am moving with moderate confidence in the bullish direction.

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is heightening concerns over energy supply, potentially driving oil prices higher, which could positively impact energy stocks like CVX in the short term. Technically, the RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, while the MACD is above its signal line and trending upward, indicating positive momentum. The price trading above the 20-day SMA provides short-term support, but remaining below the 50-day SMA suggests limited upside movement. Despite a 1.7% decline in the last 24 hours, geopolitical risks are expected to boost demand for the energy sector.