Strait of Hormuz Agreement Draft Completed, Submitted to Khamenei for Approval

The completion of the draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and put pressure on Brent prices. Technical indicators also support this view, with the RSI in the weak zone at 41, MACD below zero, and the price trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 1.7% decline over the last 24 hours indicates continued selling pressure. In the short term, the downward movement may persist on the back of the deal news, and the support level around $78 could be tested. However, I maintain a moderate confidence level due to the possibility of the deal not being ratified and uncertainties surrounding OPEC+ supply policies.

The completion of the draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the geopolitical risk premium and put pressure on oil prices. Technical indicators also support this view, with the RSI at 40.9 in the weak zone and the MACD trading negatively below the signal line. The price is trading just below the 20-day moving average (75.58) and significantly below the 50-day average (77.92). The 2% decline over the last 24 hours indicates continued selling pressure. In the short term, a break below the $75 support level could accelerate the downward momentum, but caution is advised due to the possibility that the agreement may not be approved.

Although the completion of the Hormuz Strait agreement draft suggests that geopolitical risks may ease, the impact on oil prices could remain limited. XOM shares have lost 3.3% over the past 24 hours, with the RSI at 37.5, indicating a weak zone. The MACD is negative and below the signal line, pointing to downward short-term momentum. The price is trading below both the SMA20 and SMA50, which weighs on the technical outlook. While the news of the agreement is positive, the current technical indicators and selling pressure suggest that the bearish trend may persist in the short term.

The completion of a draft agreement in the Strait of Hormuz could reduce geopolitical risk premium and put pressure on oil prices, potentially benefiting energy stocks like CVX in the short term. However, the stock has been under selling pressure, dropping 2.9% in the last 24 hours, with RSI at 30.4, nearing oversold territory, which increases the potential for a rebound. MACD is in negative territory, but the price is below SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a weak trend. The news of the agreement, combined with oversold technical conditions, supports the possibility of a short-term upward correction. Nevertheless, confidence is maintained at a moderate level due to the uncertainty of the news confirmation and market reaction.