Control Authority in the Strait of Hormuz Could Shift to Iran

News that control over inspections in the Strait of Hormuz could shift to Iran has created a serious perception of risk to oil supply security, yet prices are already in a sharp decline. Brent has lost nearly 7% in the last 24 hours, with RSI falling to 38, indicating continued selling pressure. MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, confirming short-term downward momentum. While the news could increase the geopolitical risk premium, the current technical outlook and recent price action suggest the decline may continue. The absence of price above the SMA20 and SMA50 forms strong resistance to any recovery.

Iran's assumption of control in the Strait of Hormuz could heighten geopolitical risks to oil supply and put downward pressure on prices. Technical indicators are already signaling a strong sell-off, with the RSI approaching oversold territory at 33, the MACD in negative territory, and the price trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The sharp 8% decline over the last 24 hours indicates downward momentum in the short term. However, oversold conditions and uncertainty surrounding the news may limit the pace of the decline; therefore, the confidence level is maintained at moderate.

Iran's gaining control in the Strait of Hormuz could increase geopolitical risks to oil supply security and trigger volatility in energy prices. XOM shares have already fallen 2.1% in the last 24 hours, with RSI at 38.5 in the weak zone, indicating that selling pressure may continue. MACD is negative and below the signal line, suggesting downward short-term momentum. The price is below SMA20 and SMA50, confirming a weak technical outlook. However, the news is unconfirmed and the market may have already priced in such risks, limiting the downside expectation.

Reports that control over inspections in the Strait of Hormuz could shift to Iran have heightened geopolitical risks to oil supply, potentially weighing on energy stocks. CVX shares have fallen 5.1% in the last 24 hours, with the RSI at 32.4, approaching oversold territory. The MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages; this technical outlook, combined with the negative impact of the news, increases the likelihood of continued decline. However, the low RSI level could also set the stage for a potential technical rebound, so I maintain a medium-high confidence level.