Shipping Traffic Collapses in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Raising Energy Risks

The collapse of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb poses a serious risk to energy supply security and could push oil prices higher in the short term. Technical indicators show the RSI just above 50 and above the MACD signal line, indicating weak positive momentum. The price has closed above the 20-day moving average but remains below the 50-day average, suggesting that the upside may be limited. While geopolitical risks support prices, the current technical structure does not provide sufficient signals for a strong breakout. Therefore, a moderate rise can be expected in the short term, but the likelihood of an extreme move is low.

The collapse of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb poses a serious risk to energy supply security, which could push oil prices higher in the short term. Technically, the RSI is in neutral territory (50.2), and the price is just above the 20-day moving average (75.28), signaling weak positive momentum. The MACD remains in negative territory but is approaching the signal line, indicating that downward pressure is easing. Geopolitical risks typically drive prices up quickly and sharply, but the slight decline in the last close and the need to stay above the SMA50 (76.34) suggest that the upside may be limited. Therefore, the probability of an upward move in the short term is medium-to-high.

The collapse of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb poses a serious risk to energy supply security and could push oil prices higher. Although XOM shares have fallen 2% in the last 24 hours, these geopolitical risks could trigger a short-term recovery in the energy sector. With the RSI near oversold territory at 38, technical indicators show weak momentum, but the news flow could offset this weakness. Despite the MACD being in negative territory, the price below the SMA20 and SMA50 maintains a bearish trend; however, geopolitical news often causes short-term price spikes. Therefore, the likelihood of an upward move appears moderate.

The collapse of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait poses a serious geopolitical risk to energy supply security and could push oil prices higher. CVX shares have fallen 5% in the last 24 hours, with the RSI at 32, approaching oversold territory, which may set the stage for a short-term technical rebound. The MACD is in negative territory, but the price below the SMA20 and SMA50 indicates a weak trend; however, the news flow could reflect positively on the energy sector. In the short term, the likelihood of an upward correction is moderate, but caution is advised as the lasting impact of the news remains uncertain.