US Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Expectations

The weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown and limit risk appetite. However, the index's 24-hour rise and RSI at 60 indicate that current momentum remains positive. Although the MACD remains below the signal line, the price sitting just below the SMA20 strengthens the likelihood of a sideways movement in the short term. The market will attempt to price in expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy following the data; therefore, caution is advised until the direction becomes clearer.

Nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown and negatively impact risk appetite. Despite the strong rally in the NDX at the last close, the RSI at 55 is in neutral territory and the price is below the SMA20, signaling short-term weakness. The MACD remains below the signal line, indicating limited upward momentum. The news could create selling pressure, particularly in technology stocks, but the impact may be limited as the market may have already partially priced in this expectation. Therefore, I foresee a slight downward bias in the short term.

The weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data could put pressure on the US dollar, as it increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Technical indicators also support this outlook; although the RSI at 19.9 is in oversold territory, the MACD remains below its signal line, and the price is trading below both the SMA20 and SMA50. In the short term, the downtrend may persist, but some corrective buying could emerge given the oversold conditions. Therefore, while the bias remains bearish, the confidence level is set to moderate.