How Will the Super El Niño in Latin America Affect Food Exports?

The headline is not a direct catalyst for GOOGL, but it could negatively impact macro risk appetite. Technical indicators are weak: the price is below the 20-day moving average, and the RSI at 43 signals a loss of momentum. The MACD is in negative territory and, although above the signal line, gives a weak recovery signal. In the short term, selling pressure is likely to persist, but since the stock is not in oversold territory, the downside is expected to be limited.

Super El Niño news could revive concerns over corn supply by increasing the risk of adverse weather conditions, particularly for agricultural production in Latin America. This may exert upward pressure on corn prices in the short term. Technically, the price is above the 50-day moving average, with the RSI in neutral territory, and while the MACD is below the signal line, momentum loss appears limited. However, the price being below the 20-day average suggests that the upside may not be strong. Therefore, a limited rise can be expected on the back of the news, but excessive optimism should be avoided.

The Super El Niño news could heighten supply concerns as it may negatively impact soybean production in Latin America. Technically, the price is above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and the RSI is in neutral territory, supporting upward momentum. Although the MACD is just below the signal line, it remains in positive territory, indicating potential for a short-term recovery. However, the impact of the news may be limited as the effects of El Niño are not yet clear, and market pricing may be cautious. Therefore, the upside expectation is expressed with moderate confidence.

The Super El Niño news could heighten the risk of adverse weather conditions, particularly for agricultural production in Latin America, thereby fueling concerns over wheat supply. Technical indicators also support this bullish outlook, with the RSI at 64—strong but not overbought—the MACD above its signal line, and the price above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. In the short term, this news could trigger positive momentum and push prices higher, but caution is warranted given the uncertainty surrounding the El Niño impact. Therefore, I expect a moderately confident move to the upside.