Central Bank Survey Shows Higher Year-End Inflation and Dollar Forecasts

The August Market Participants Survey released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) indicates a notable revision in market professionals' year-end expectations. According to the survey, the year-end 2026 inflation expectation rose to 29.43 percent, while the dollar/TL exchange rate forecast was updated to 51.66. These figures show an upward movement in both inflation and exchange rate expectations compared to the previous survey period. Market participants' expectation for the policy rate ahead of the CBRT's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in September was recorded at 37 percent. This expectation reflects the market's projections for a rate cut or holding the rate steady under the current monetary policy stance. The survey results serve as an important indicator of how developments in macroeconomic data are shaping market expectations. The rise in inflation expectations points to ongoing concerns about price stability, while the increase in the dollar/TL forecast reveals the market's cautious stance regarding exchange rate volatility. The survey is also evaluated to understand the interaction between the CBRT's communication policy and market perception. The Market Participants Survey stands out as a key data source regularly published by the CBRT to gauge the expectations of financial actors. The August results contain signals that could be decisive in shaping monetary policy decisions in the coming period. This is not investment advice.