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63/100 Bearish 14.08.2026 · 13:58 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 7 TR

Surprise Drop in US Retail Sales Weighs on Dollar

The unexpected decline in US retail sales data led to a depreciation in the US dollar index (DXY). Markets are assessing that this weakness in consumer spending could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Following the data release, the dollar retreated against major currencies, while EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs observed gains. The decline in retail sales heightened concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Analysts suggest that this situation could prompt the US central bank (Fed) to adopt a more cautious approach in its interest rate hike cycle. Given that consumer spending constitutes a significant portion of GDP, this data raises questions about the growth outlook. The dollar index (DXY) extended its intraday losses following the data release. The EURUSD pair moved upward, surpassing the 1.10 level amid dollar weakness. Similarly, the GBPUSD pair gained value, attracting investor interest. Gold prices (GLD) also showed an upward trend, supported by the dollar's decline. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming inflation data and verbal guidance from Fed officials in the coming days. This unexpected drop in retail sales increases uncertainties regarding the path of monetary policy and negatively impacts investor risk appetite. Experts indicate that the dollar may remain under pressure in the short term, but the global economic outlook will also be a determining factor. This is not investment advice.

📊 GBPUSD — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 65%

The news highlights that a surprise decline in US retail sales has weakened the dollar, potentially creating upward pressure on GBP/USD. Technical indicators show the RSI in overbought territory above 80, signaling a possible short-term correction risk despite strong momentum. The MACD remains above its signal line and positive, while the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, supporting an uptrend. However, overbought conditions and a 0.47% gain over the last 24 hours may limit further upside. In the short term, continued upward movement is possible, but caution is advised, and stop-loss orders should be considered for a potential pullback.

RSI 14
80.3
MACD
0.00
24h Δ
0.47%

📊 GLD — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The unexpected decline in retail sales may weaken the dollar, thereby supporting gold prices. Technical indicators show RSI at 58, in neutral territory, while MACD remains positive but below the signal line. The price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, maintaining a short-term upward trend. However, the impact of the macro data may be limited, so I anticipate a moderate increase rather than a strong rally.

RSI 14
57.9
MACD
0.74
24h Δ
0.85%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

The unexpected decline in retail sales is heightening concerns over a weakening U.S. economy, putting pressure on the dollar. Although the RSI at 20 signals oversold conditions, the MACD remaining below its signal line and the price trading below both the SMA20 and SMA50 support a short-term bearish trend. With negative news flow, the downtrend is likely to persist for a while. However, given oversold conditions, a technical rebound is possible, so caution is advised.

RSI 14
20.0
MACD
-0.09
24h Δ
-0.41%

📊 EURUSD — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The headline notes that the unexpected decline in US retail sales has weakened the dollar, which could create upward pressure on the EURUSD pair. Technical indicators also support this view: although the RSI is in overbought territory at 78.68, the MACD is above its signal line and positive, indicating strong short-term momentum. The price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, suggesting the uptrend remains intact. However, the overbought RSI also brings a risk of a short-term correction, so I believe the upside movement may be limited. Overall, the news flow and technical structure increase the likelihood of a slight upward move in the pair over a 1-3 day perspective.

RSI 14
78.7
MACD
0.00
24h Δ
0.39%
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