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73/100 Bullish 18.08.2026 · 05:05 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 5 TR

Copper Market Supply Squeeze: Near-Term Premiums at Peak

A supply squeeze in the copper market has driven the premium on near-term contracts at the London Metal Exchange (LME) to its highest level since January. Hundreds of thousands of tons of copper being diverted to the U.S. ahead of potential U.S. tariffs has caused inventories in other regions to dwindle. This has led to spot prices commanding a premium of $545 per ton over three-month contracts, increasing pressure on investors holding short positions. Copper prices have gained more than 13% this year. Market participants are closely monitoring whether the first increase in LME inventories will alleviate the supply squeeze. Inventory data stands out as a critical indicator for the direction of price movements. Experts note that if the flow of copper to the U.S. continues, inventories in other regions could decline further, potentially increasing price volatility. However, a possible rise in LME stocks could help restore balance to the market. This is not investment advice.

📊 COPPER — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The headline points to a supply squeeze in the copper market, with near-term premiums at their peak, which could support prices in the short term. Technical indicators, however, are sending mixed signals: the RSI at 33.5 is near oversold territory, increasing the potential for a rebound. Yet, the MACD is negative and the price is below both the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating sustained short-term weakness. The supply squeeze news could break the current downtrend and pull the price toward the SMA20 level of 6.63. Still, given weak momentum, any upside is expected to be limited, so a moderate confidence level is assigned to the upward direction.

RSI 14
33.5
MACD
-0.02
24h Δ
-0.64%

📊 FCX — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The news of copper supply tightness could serve as a positive catalyst for FCX in the near term. On the technical indicators, the RSI is at 55, in neutral territory, while the MACD is above its signal line and showing a positive trend. The price is above the SMA20 but just below the SMA50, indicating a resistance zone. A short-term upward movement may be expected on the back of the news, but caution is advised due to resistance at the current price level.

RSI 14
55.6
MACD
0.01
24h Δ
-0.89%

📊 SCCO — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

News of copper supply tightness could serve as a positive catalyst for copper producers such as SCCO. On the technical front, the RSI stands at 54 in neutral territory, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is above the SMA20, supporting a short-term bullish bias. However, the price remains just below the SMA50 and has seen a slight decline over the past 24 hours, warranting caution. A short-term upward move may be expected on the back of the news, but it could encounter strong resistance.

RSI 14
54.4
MACD
-0.05
24h Δ
-0.78%

📊 BHP — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The news of copper supply tightness could serve as a positive catalyst for mining companies such as BHP. On the technical indicators, the RSI stands at 54, in neutral territory, while the MACD is above its signal line, supporting a bullish trend. The price is above the 20-day moving average but below the 50-day average, indicating potential for a short-term recovery. Despite the decline in the latest close, the news flow and technical structure may support an upward move in the near term. However, caution is advised due to overall market risks and macroeconomic uncertainties.

RSI 14
54.9
MACD
-0.26
24h Δ
-1.95%
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