Trump Announces Deal with Canada, Tariffs Suspended

This development is expected to increase global risk appetite by easing trade war concerns, creating a positive atmosphere in equity markets. The agreement with Canada reduces uncertainty in North American supply chains and could provide direct support to the automotive and energy sectors. In Turkish markets, this could also bolster risk appetite for emerging market assets, contributing to a short-term uptick in BIST and TL-denominated assets. However, uncertainties regarding the details and feasibility of the deal may limit the extent of the rally.

The news could boost risk appetite as trade tensions ease, providing short-term support for the USD. However, technical indicators remain weak: RSI is in oversold territory at 34.5, MACD is negative, and the price is below the SMA20/50. A sharp 8.5% decline in the last 24 hours may signal oversold conditions. Despite the positive news, the technical outlook may limit any rebound; thus, the direction is upward but confidence is moderate.

The news indicates a reduction in US-Canada trade tensions, which typically supports the Canadian dollar (CAD) and could exert downward pressure on the USDCAD pair. Technical indicators also support this view; the RSI at 46 suggests slight selling pressure in neutral territory, while the price is below the SMA20 and the MACD is below its signal line, indicating weak momentum. However, the price remains above the SMA50, and the possibility that the news impact may be limited suggests that the decline might not be strong. In the short term, the pair has potential to pull back toward the 1.3850-1.3880 range, but additional negative news or data flow may be needed for this move to be sustained.