Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Raises Fed September Rate Hike Odds to 59%

A hawkish Jackson Hole speech could raise the probability of a September rate hike to 59%, potentially weighing on the market. This may dampen risk appetite and lead to a short-term correction in the index. Technical indicators are sending mixed signals, with the RSI in neutral territory and the MACD positive but showing weak momentum. While trading above the SMA20 and SMA50 supports the medium-term trend, the news flow could increase selling pressure in the near term. Therefore, the index is likely to experience a slight pullback within the next 1-3 days.

A hawkish Jackson Hole speech could increase the probability of a September rate hike to 59%, potentially dampening risk appetite. This may negatively impact technology stocks with high valuations. Technically, the RSI is in neutral territory, and the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, but momentum is weak. Short-term selling pressure may occur, but the decline is expected to be limited.

Hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising expectations of further interest rate hikes could lend support to the DXY in the near term. Although the RSI above 80 signals overbought conditions, strong trend momentum may persist. The MACD is positive and above its signal line, confirming the upward bias. However, overbought conditions and a 0.5% gain over the last 24 hours also introduce the risk of short-term consolidation or a minor pullback. Overall, the news flow and technical outlook increase the likelihood that the DXY will continue its upward movement over the next 1-3 days.