Trump: US to Take Control of Venezuela's 65 Billion Barrels of Oil

The news points to a geopolitical development in which the US will take control of Venezuela's oil reserves, which could increase the risk of supply disruptions and support Brent prices. Technically, the price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, with the RSI at 55.6 in a neutral-positive zone; although the MACD is just below the signal line, momentum loss is limited. In the short term, an upward move is possible on the back of the news, but with the price already near the resistance zone at 88.29, the strength of the rally may be limited. The market will attempt to price in the actual feasibility of the news and the OPEC+ response; therefore, cautious optimism is appropriate.

The news implies that the US will gain control over Venezuela's oil reserves, which could heighten supply security concerns and geopolitical risk perception. Technically, the RSI at 57 is in neutral territory, the MACD is positive, and the price is above the SMA20, supporting a short-term upward trend. However, since the news does not create a clear supply disruption and the price is already at elevated levels, the upside may be limited. Therefore, the direction is upward but with moderate confidence.

Although the news signals a positive supply increase with the US set to control Venezuelan oil, this could boost global oil supply and put pressure on prices. XOM shares have lost 2.8% in the last 24 hours, with the RSI at 36.9, indicating weak momentum. The MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, suggesting short-term downward momentum. The price is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, further weakening the technical outlook. Therefore, the downtrend is likely to persist in the short term, though oversold conditions may trigger a rebound.

The news that the US will control Venezuelan oil can be perceived as a positive geopolitical development, potentially increasing optimism in the energy sector. Technically, the price is above the 20-day moving average, and the RSI is in neutral territory, indicating potential upward momentum in the short term. The MACD is still negative but approaching the signal line, which could signal a recovery. However, given the uncertainty regarding the likelihood of the news materializing and its impact on the market, upside expectations should be tempered. In the short term, the price is likely to move within the $200–205 range.