Barclays Expects Two More Fed Rate Hikes This Year After Warsh Speech

Barclays' expectation of two additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year could reinforce a hawkish perception of the Fed in the markets, potentially dampening global risk appetite. This scenario may trigger capital outflows and currency pressure, particularly in emerging markets and countries with high external financing needs, such as Turkey. In the short term, selling pressure in equity markets and a rise in bond yields could be observed; however, the Fed's forward guidance will be decisive in keeping the impact limited.

The news includes expectations that the Fed will implement two more rate hikes this year, which could reduce overall risk appetite and put pressure on growth stocks. GOOGL's RSI is at 56.8, in neutral territory, and the MACD is positive but has just crossed above the signal line, indicating momentum is not strong. The price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, but the latest close change was very low (0.12%), suggesting a sideways trend. Given that rate hike expectations could negatively impact technology stock valuations, I foresee a slight downward bias in the short term. However, since the current technical structure is not completely broken, I maintain a moderate level of confidence.

Barclays' expectation of two more Fed rate hikes this year could create a hawkish perception in the market and suppress risk appetite in the short term. On the technical indicators, RSI is in neutral territory (51.7) and MACD is below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum. Although the price is trying to stay above SMA20 and SMA50, the rate hike expectation could create selling pressure on the index. Therefore, the probability of a downward move in the short term appears higher than an upward move. However, the impact may be limited as the market may have partially priced in such news.

Barclays' expectation of two additional rate hikes by the Fed this year could create a hawkish sentiment in the market and dampen risk appetite. This may act as a short-term negative factor for the NDX index, which is heavily weighted toward growth stocks. On the technical indicators, the RSI is in neutral territory and the MACD is below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum. Although the price is attempting to stay above the SMA20 and SMA50, the risk of testing these support levels may increase with the rate hike expectations. Therefore, the likelihood of a short-term downward correction in the index appears high.