BBVA Research Pulls Forward TCMB Rate Cut Forecast, Points to October

Ahead of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 10, foreign financial institutions continue to update their interest rate expectations. While market participants are largely pricing in no change in the policy rate at the upcoming meeting, notable revisions are emerging in forecasts, particularly for the final quarter of the year. BBVA Research, the research arm of Spanish banking group BBVA, has updated its forecast for Turkey's rate cut timeline. The institution now expects the first 100 basis point rate cut to occur in October, rather than its previous expectation of December. This revision is seen as a signal regarding the inflation outlook and the potential direction of monetary policy. BBVA Research's forecast change has strengthened market expectations that the CBRT may begin its easing cycle earlier following its tightening measures. However, the institution's baseline scenario still expects rates to remain unchanged at the September meeting. This is interpreted as the central bank maintaining its data-driven approach and not acting hastily before confirming the persistence of the decline in inflation. Experts note that foreign institutions' projections on the rate path are also important for the trajectory of foreign interest in Turkish lira assets. Particularly, potential volatility in the exchange rate and improvements in inflation expectations are cited as key factors that will shape the rate cut timeline. This is not investment advice.

📊 TRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 70%

BBVA's forecast that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will begin interest rate cuts in October has strengthened expectations of early easing in the market, which could negatively impact Turkish lira (TL) assets in the short term. This situation may increase volatility in the Turkish stock market and bond yields due to concerns over premature rate cuts in the fight against inflation. However, as the rate cut expectation is perceived as growth-supportive, selective buying may be seen in banking stocks. Overall, with weak risk appetite towards emerging markets, this news could increase depreciation pressure on the TL in the short term.

RSI 14

—

MACD

—

24h Δ

0.00%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

BBVA's pulling forward of its interest rate cut forecast could boost confidence in Turkish lira assets and put downward pressure on USDTRY. However, the current technical outlook shows the RSI approaching overbought territory at 65, with the price trading above short-term averages. Therefore, the impact of the news may be limited, and an upward continuation in the exchange rate seems possible. In the short term, a sideways or slightly upward movement can be expected, but the rate cut expectation supports the TL, also bringing downside risks.

RSI 14

65.1

MACD

0.04

24h Δ

0.16%

📊 EURTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

BBVA's pulling forward its interest rate cut forecast could put pressure on the Turkish lira and push the EURTRY parity higher in the short term. However, current technical indicators are sending mixed signals; RSI is in neutral territory, while MACD has generated a sell signal. The price is trading just below the SMA20 and above the SMA50, indicating a sideways outlook. Combining the news flow and the technical picture, a limited upside or sideways movement in the parity can be expected, but predicting an extreme move is difficult.

RSI 14

53.4

MACD

0.03

24h Δ

-0.05%

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BBVA Research Pulls Forward TCMB Rate Cut Forecast, Points to October

📊 TRY — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 EURTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

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