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66/100 Bullish 05.09.2026 · 08:57 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 41 TR

El Nino Could Impact Energy Markets: Higher Electricity and LNG Demand Expected

The probability of a 'very strong' El Nino climate event occurring by the end of the year and into early 2027 is estimated to be above 90 percent. This is expected to have significant impacts across a broad spectrum of global energy markets, from electricity demand to hydroelectric generation, natural gas and LNG usage, and energy transportation. According to calculations by the analytics firm ICIS, Asia's third-quarter LNG demand could rise by approximately 1.6 million tons due to El Nino-related weather conditions. This increase is expected to boost demand for natural gas-fired power plants, particularly in regions where electricity use for cooling is intensive. Increased drought risk in some regions due to El Nino could negatively affect hydroelectric generation capacity. This could accelerate the shift toward alternative sources such as natural gas and coal for electricity generation and put upward pressure on energy prices. Experts emphasize that the climate event should be closely monitored for energy supply security and price stability. Especially during this period when the supply-demand balance in the LNG market is delicate, a potential increase in demand could affect global prices. This is not investment advice.

📊 NATGAS — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The anticipated rise in electricity and LNG demand due to El Nino is creating a positive catalyst for natural gas prices. Technical indicators also support this outlook, with the RSI at 57.6 in bullish territory and the MACD showing positive momentum above its signal line. The price is trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term upward trend. However, the impact of the news may be limited, and a stronger demand signal may be needed for the price to break through the 3.00 resistance level. Therefore, the bullish expectation can be expressed with moderate confidence.

RSI 14
57.6
MACD
0.00
24h Δ
1.71%

📊 BRENT — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

Expectations of increased energy demand due to El Nino can be viewed as supportive news for Brent oil. On the technical indicators, the RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, while the MACD is above its signal line and shows a positive outlook. The price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, maintaining a short-term upward trend. However, the impact of the news may be limited, and the possibility of encountering resistance at current price levels should not be overlooked. Therefore, although the direction is upward, it may be premature to expect strong momentum.

RSI 14
56.5
MACD
0.12
24h Δ
0.48%

📊 NTGAZ — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 55%

Expectations of increased electricity and LNG demand due to El Nino could have a positive short-term impact on natural gas prices. Technical indicators, however, paint a mixed picture; RSI is neutral at 45, MACD is negative but above its signal line, and the price is just above the SMA20. This situation, supported by the news, increases the potential for the price to test the 11.30 resistance level. However, staying below the SMA50 and generally weak momentum suggest that any upside may be limited. A slight uptick can be expected in the short term, but sustained volume and news flow are important for the formation of a strong trend.

RSI 14
45.6
MACD
-0.04
24h Δ
-0.18%
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