Rate hike expectations strengthen at ECB

Strengthening expectations of an ECB rate hike could weigh on banking stocks by dampening global risk appetite. JPM's technical indicators present a mixed picture: RSI is in neutral territory, MACD is below the signal line, and the price sits just above the SMA20 and SMA50. In the short term, this news flow could support the current weak momentum, increasing the risk of the price slipping below the SMA20 level. However, the impact may remain limited, as JPM's fundamental dynamics are more sensitive to US interest rate policy.

Strengthening expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) could negatively impact global risk appetite. Capital outflows may accelerate, particularly in emerging markets and countries with high external financing needs, such as Turkey. Rising European bond yields could increase global borrowing costs, reigniting growth concerns. This situation may create selling pressure in both developed and emerging market equities in the short term.

Strengthening expectations of an ECB rate hike stand out as a supportive factor for the EUR. On the technical indicators, the RSI is balanced around 50, with the price just below the SMA20 and SMA50, signaling a short-term squeeze. Although the news flow is positive, the current price action is weak, and there is no clear breakout for a strong rally yet. Therefore, a limited upward movement can be expected, but one should not be overly optimistic.

Strengthening expectations of an ECB rate hike could support the euro, potentially creating downward pressure on the EURTRY parity in the short term. Technical indicators signal weak momentum, with the RSI at 48 in neutral territory, the MACD below its signal line, and the price just under the SMA20. However, the price remains above the SMA50, and the overall decline is very limited, which does not constitute a strong sell signal. Therefore, although the direction is downward, the confidence level is maintained at a moderate level.