ECB Rate Hike Expected

The DAX declined 1.55% in the last 24 hours to 25,552, with its RSI at 28.6 approaching oversold territory. The MACD is negative and below its signal line, indicating continued short-term downward momentum. Expectations of an ECB rate hike could have a negative impact, particularly by increasing borrowing costs for export-oriented German companies. However, oversold conditions and a possible 'priced in' reaction may limit the response. Nevertheless, the net effect of the news tends to be downward.

The ECB's expected rate hike is a positive catalyst for EUR. However, the market may have largely priced in this expectation. Technical indicators point to a sideways trend: RSI at 54.5 is neutral, MACD is slightly above the signal line, and the price is very close to SMA20 and SMA50. Therefore, the impact may be limited and upward; the 1.1650 resistance is critical.

The expectation of an ECB rate hike could reduce global risk appetite and lead to capital outflows from emerging markets. This situation creates depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira, while a selling trend may be seen on Borsa Istanbul. Additionally, the increasing rate expectation could raise global bond yields and negatively affect stock valuations. In the short term, market sentiment may shape towards risk aversion.