LNG Crisis in Hormuz Drives Coal Demand to Record High

Although the LNG crisis in Hormuz increases natural gas supply concerns, the news headline emphasizes that coal demand has reached a record, indicating a loss of substitution demand from natural gas. The price is below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs at 2.78, the RSI is in oversold territory at 27, and the MACD is in negative territory, indicating that the short-term downtrend is dominant. The oversold condition may create a limited rebound, but the news flow favors coal, so the recovery probability is weak. In the 1-3 day outlook, downward pressure is expected to continue, testing the 2.70-2.75 band. However, it should be remembered that geopolitical developments can quickly change direction with new headlines regarding gas supply.

The LNG crisis in Hormuz is driving coal demand to record levels by increasing energy supply concerns. This situation could put upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices and create a positive short-term effect for Brent. However, technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 47 is neutral, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is slightly below the 20-day moving average. Although the 24-hour change is positive, the impact of the news may be limited. A short-term upward movement is possible, but the confidence level is moderate.