CBRT Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's decision to keep its policy rate unchanged was in line with market expectations, likely resulting in a limited impact. EUR/TRY's last close at 56.5044 is very close to its 20-day simple moving average (SMA20) of 56.5051, with the RSI at 49.6 in neutral territory and the MACD slightly below its signal line. This outlook does not produce a clear directional signal in the short term. Volatility in the pair may increase following the interest rate decision, but a sideways trend is more likely over a 1-3 day horizon. Nevertheless, movements driven by geopolitical or global risk appetite should be monitored.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged is in line with market expectations, and thus is expected to have a limited impact on GBPTRY. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI at 43.6 is in the neutral-weak zone, MACD is below the signal line, but the price is slightly above the SMA20 and SMA50. The 24-hour change is nearly flat (0.08%) and volatility remains low. The exchange rate is likely to stay within the 65.50-66.00 band in the short term; after the interest rate decision, there is no clear signal of significant appreciation or depreciation in the Turkish lira. Therefore, the 1-3 day outlook is neutral.