CBRT Reserves Fell 2.1% in the Week Ending September 4

The 2.1% decline in the CBRT's reserves may be perceived by the market as a factor putting some pressure on the Turkish lira and could support an upward trend in USDTRY. However, the latest close at 48.4950 is just above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and the RSI at 54.4 is in neutral territory, which does not signal an extreme move. The MACD line is below its signal line (0.0015 < 0.0031) and in negative territory, indicating weak short-term momentum. The impact of the reserve loss news may be limited; the exchange rate is likely to fluctuate around 48.50. Nevertheless, upside risks could revive with geopolitical developments or additional data flow.

The 2.1% decline in CBRT reserves can be interpreted as a limited pressure factor on the TL; however, since the magnitude of the reserve loss and its alignment with market expectations are uncertain, the impact may remain weak. Technical indicators point to a sideways trend: RSI is neutral around 50, MACD is slightly below the signal line, and the price is squeezed between SMA20 and SMA50. With the 24-hour change at only 0.2%, short-term momentum is weak. The reserve decline alone is not sufficient to create a clear direction in EURTRY; institutional flows and interest rate expectations will be decisive. Therefore, a neutral stance is more realistic in the 1-3 day outlook.