ECB Raises Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points

The Fed's 25 basis point rate hike could negatively affect global risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets. In countries with high external financing needs like Turkey, pressure on the Turkish lira to depreciate and upward movement in bond yields may be seen. However, if the decision was priced in beforehand, the impact may be limited; nevertheless, tightening global liquidity conditions do not support risky assets in the short term.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike could be a slight positive surprise for the EUR; however, the market may have largely priced this in. With RSI at 24.6, it is in oversold territory, and the price is below the SMA20/SMA50, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. MACD is in negative territory and close to the signal line, indicating weak momentum. The impact of the news may be limited; unless the 1.1600 resistance is breached, the upward movement may not be sustained. Nevertheless, oversold conditions and a hawkish ECB tone could provide an upward correction in the 1-3 day horizon.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike can be considered a mildly hawkish surprise for the EUR and may create short-term upward pressure on the EURTRY pair. However, the current technical outlook is mixed: RSI at 34.9 is close to oversold territory, indicating limited buying interest. The price is trading just below the SMA20 and SMA50, meaning the trend is not yet clear. MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory, suggesting that the upside may be limited. Overall, the news is EUR-positive, but technical indicators warrant caution; the 1-3 day impact may be moderately upward.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike, while in line with market expectations, indicates that the tightening cycle continues. The DAX has fallen 1.47% in the last 24 hours to 25,484, with the RSI approaching 30 and entering oversold territory. The MACD is negative and below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below the SMA20 and SMA50, confirming continued downward pressure. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish tone following the rate hike, additional selling pressure could emerge on the index; however, oversold conditions may also set the stage for a limited rebound.