European Central Bank Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike, while in line with market expectations, may create short-term pressure on the DAX. Already, with an RSI of 29, it is in oversold territory, and the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, with a negative MACD signal indicating a strong downtrend. The rate hike could raise borrowing costs and negatively impact equity valuations. However, oversold conditions may trigger buying interest, so the bearish outlook is moderately reliable. In the short term, volatility and downside risks may persist.

EURUSD has fallen 0.36% in the last 24 hours to 1.1594, with RSI14 at 24.65, indicating oversold territory. Although the ECB's 25 basis point rate hike is theoretically a positive surprise for the euro, the market may have largely priced it in. Oversold conditions could set the stage for a short-term rebound. However, MACD is negative and the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, confirming weak momentum. Therefore, I expect a moderate upward correction in the 1-3 day outlook, but additional confirmation is needed for a strong trend reversal.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike is generally a positive factor for the EUR, but its impact on the EURTRY pair may remain limited. Technical indicators already point to a weak outlook: RSI at 34 is near oversold territory, and the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50. The MACD is below its signal line and in negative territory. This picture suggests that the optimism created by the news could be offset by selling pressure in the short term. Nevertheless, since TCMB policies and local factors dominate EURTRY, the impact of the ECB decision is limited and downside risks persist.