ECB Raises Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike is a fundamentally positive signal for the EUR, but the market may have largely priced it in. With RSI at 24.6, the currency is in oversold territory, and the price is below the SMA20/SMA50, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. However, the MACD is negative and close to the signal line, and momentum has not yet given a clear reversal signal. The impact of the news may be limited; unless the 1.1600 resistance is broken, the upward movement may not be sustained. Nevertheless, oversold conditions and the hawkish ECB stance support a mild upward bias in the short term.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike could negatively affect global risk appetite and create selling pressure in stock markets. Investors may move away from risky assets due to concerns that the ECB will continue its tightening cycle and slow economic growth. In Turkey, the depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira may increase and the BIST 100 may see a short-term decline. However, the impact may be limited as the decision was already priced in.

The ECB's 25 basis point rate hike can be considered a short-term negative signal for the DAX. This is because rate hikes increase borrowing costs and can pressure stock valuations. However, the market may have largely priced in this decision; therefore, the impact may be limited. Technical indicators already point to a weak outlook: RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, MACD is negative, and the price is below the 20 and 50-day moving averages. These conditions indicate that downside risk continues in the short term, but oversold conditions may lead to rebound buying.