ECB Raises Interest Rates for Second Time Since Iran War

The ECB's second rate hike following the Iran war may negatively affect global risk appetite and create selling pressure in stock markets. A high interest rate environment could accelerate capital outflows, particularly from emerging markets, and put depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira. The upward trend in bond yields could increase borrowing costs and weaken economic growth expectations. In the short term, increased market volatility and a stronger flight from risky assets are likely.

Although the ECB's rate hike is a fundamentally positive signal for the EUR, the phrase 'second time since the Iran War' in the headline indicates that geopolitical risks and inflation pressure through energy prices persist. Technical indicators, with RSI near oversold territory (27.2) and a negative MACD, increase the likelihood of a short-term rebound. The price is trading below the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating that the main trend is still downward. The rate hike news may already be priced in; therefore, the upward movement may be limited. While a slight recovery is expected in the 1-3 day horizon, additional confirmation is needed for a strong upward trend.

The ECB's rate hike could lead to the EUR appreciating against the TRY. However, the EURTRY pair has been trading sideways over the past 24 hours, and with an RSI of 38, it is near oversold territory, indicating limited upside potential. The MACD is below its signal line and the price is slightly below the SMA20, suggesting a weak technical outlook. The impact of the news may be limited; a moderate upward movement is expected within 1-3 days, but a strong trend may not materialize.