ECB Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points Amid Inflation Pressure from Middle East Conflict

The ECB's interest rate hike due to inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict could negatively affect global risk appetite and create selling pressure in stock markets. A high interest rate environment may increase borrowing costs and deepen concerns about economic growth. Capital flows to emerging markets like Turkey could be adversely affected, and depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira may arise. In the short term, market sentiment may shape towards risk aversion.

The ECB's surprise rate hike is a positive short-term catalyst for EUR. However, the price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages and the RSI at 27 is in oversold territory; this could limit rebound buying. The MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, momentum remains weak. If the pair holds above the 1.1600 support after the news, a limited recovery towards the 1.1635-1.1650 resistance could be seen. Although the direction is upward due to oversold conditions, confidence is low; the risk of a drop below 1.1580 persists.

The ECB's rate hike was made in response to inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and is a positive signal for the EUR in the short term. However, in the EURTRY pair, Turkey's own dynamics and the TL's depreciation trend may be decisive. Technical indicators: RSI at 36.8 is near oversold territory, indicating a limited rebound. MACD is below the signal line and the price is slightly below the SMA20, presenting a weak outlook. Nevertheless, with the news impact, a moderate upward movement in the pair can be expected, but confidence is low.