ECB Raises Interest Rates Again Amid Inflation Pressure from Iran War

The ECB's potential resumption of interest rate hikes due to Iran-related inflation pressures could negatively impact global risk appetite and create selling pressure in stock markets. A high interest rate environment could accelerate capital outflows, particularly from emerging markets, and put depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira. However, if the impact of geopolitical risks on inflation remains limited, markets could recover in the short term. Nonetheless, the ECB's hawkish stance may continue to fuel volatility in risky assets by heightening global growth concerns.

Although the ECB's rate hike is a fundamental positive factor for the EUR, inflation pressure stemming from the Iran war could dampen risk appetite and weaken the EUR. Technical indicators already point to a weak trend: RSI at 39, near oversold territory, MACD below the signal line, and price below the SMA20/50. The impact of the news may be limited; the market may have already priced in the rate hike. In the short term, the 1.1600 support is critical; if broken, the decline could accelerate. However, oversold conditions could trigger bargain hunting.

The ECB's interest rate hike could lead to the EUR appreciating against the TRY; however, inflation pressure stemming from the Iran war in the news headline could disrupt risk appetite and create a mixed effect on the EUR. Technical indicators currently present a neutral picture: RSI at 45 and below the MACD signal line, indicating weak momentum. The price is trading very close to the SMA20 and SMA50, meaning there is no clear trend. In the short term, an upward movement in EURTRY is possible due to the news, but confidence is low because the market has not yet determined a clear direction. Nevertheless, an interest rate hike generally supports the local currency, so a limited rise can be expected.