New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Rate Decision Sparks Confidence Shock in Markets

The SPX declined 2.15% over the past 24 hours to 7583, with its RSI at 24.5, placing it in oversold territory. MACD is negative and below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. New Fed Chair Warsh's interest rate decision has created a confidence shock in the markets; uncertainty could weigh on risk appetite. However, oversold conditions may trigger bargain hunting, so confidence in the downward direction is moderate. In the 1-3 day outlook, downside risk may persist, but volatility is expected after the sharp sell-off.

NDX fell 1.38% in the last 24 hours to 29,081, with RSI14 at 28.9 approaching oversold territory. MACD is negative and below the signal line, and the price is also trading below SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a weak short-term technical outlook. News of a confidence shock regarding the interest rate decision by new Fed Chair Warsh could heighten uncertainty and risk aversion, deepening selling pressure. However, oversold conditions may trigger short-term bargain hunting; therefore, despite the bearish expectation, a volatile sideways move rather than a sharp decline should also be considered. Overall, the news flow and technical indicators increase downside risk in the short term.

At its latest close, DXY is trading at 98.99, above its 20- and 50-day moving averages; the RSI at 62.5 is approaching overbought territory, and the MACD is generating a positive signal. Although the interest rate decision by new Fed Chair Warsh has created a confidence shock in the markets, DXY's technical indicators support a short-term upward bias. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the news, the direction is not entirely clear; however, current momentum and moving average support increase the likelihood of an upward reaction. Nevertheless, confidence shock news typically heightens volatility and sharp pullbacks may occur, so caution is warranted. In the 1-3 day horizon, DXY is likely to test resistance at 99.50, but the risk of a drop below 98.50 should not be ignored.

For GLD, the RSI is at 39.5, in weak territory, and the MACD is negative below its signal line; short-term momentum is downward. New Fed Chair Warsh's interest rate decision has created a confidence shock in the markets; such uncertainty environments can create short-term demand for safe havens like gold, but if there is an expectation of a rate hike, it puts pressure on gold. Since the news's net direction is unclear, the reaction may be mixed; nevertheless, technical indicators show that downside risk is more dominant. In the 1-3 day horizon, if it remains below the 4367 level, selling pressure may continue. Confidence shock news generally increases volatility, so although sudden buying reactions may be seen, it should not be forgotten that the trend is downward.