Oil Surpasses $100, Bond Yields Rise, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthen

Brent is at $105 and shows strong momentum with a rise of over 4% in 24 hours. The RSI is at 74, in overbought territory, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. The MACD is above the signal line and positive, supporting that the trend is still upward. While the news headline confirms the rise in oil prices, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate hike may support the dollar and could be restrictive on the commodity. Overall, the upward trend may be maintained in the short term, but it is wise to be cautious due to overbought conditions and macro risks.

Oil surpassing $100 and rising bond yields are strengthening expectations of a Fed rate hike, creating upward pressure on the DXY in the short term. Technical indicators also support this view: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI is at 55 in the neutral-positive zone, and the MACD is above the signal line. However, the 24-hour change is only 0.08% and momentum is still weak; therefore, the bullish signal is not strong. Rate hike expectations may already be priced in, and volatility in oil prices could disrupt risk appetite. In the short term, the 99.00-99.20 resistance zone may be tested, but a sustained breakout requires additional confirmation.

Oil surpassing $100 and rising bond yields are strengthening Fed rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets. SPX has already fallen 1.84% in 24 hours and its RSI at 29.6 is near oversold territory; while this suggests short-term bounce buying may emerge, the MACD is negative and the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50. The news flow highlights inflation and interest rate concerns, increasing downside risk. However, oversold conditions could limit sharp declines; nevertheless, the fundamental outlook points to a continued bearish trend in the short term.