CBRT Survey: Year-End Inflation Expectation Rises

The rise in year-end inflation expectations in the CBRT survey increases depreciation pressure on the TL, feeding upside risk for EURTRY. However, the current technical picture is indecisive: RSI is neutral around 50, MACD is in negative territory, and the price is squeezed between SMA20 and SMA50. Since the 24-hour change is only +0.14%, the impact of the news may remain limited. Although the deterioration in inflation expectations is negative for the TL in the medium term, in the short term, a break of the 56.45-56.50 band will be decisive for direction. Therefore, I foresee a slight upward bias in the 1-3 day outlook, but confirmation is needed for a strong trend signal.

The rise in year-end inflation expectations in the CBRT survey could create depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira and support the GBPTRY pair upwards. However, in the current technical outlook, the RSI is neutral at 56, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is squeezed between SMA20 and SMA50; this does not produce a clear directional signal. The increase in inflation expectations may delay the CBRT's tightening steps, potentially causing limited weakness in the lira, but the impact may remain limited in the short term. Overall, the news suggests a trend against the lira, thus in favor of GBPTRY, but technical indicators are indecisive. Therefore, directional uncertainty remains in the 1-3 day horizon.

The rise in year-end inflation expectations in the CBRT survey could create depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira and support upward movement in USDTRY. Technical indicators also support this view: although RSI at 64.5 approaches overbought territory, it has not yet generated a sell signal; MACD is above its signal line and the price is above the 20 and 50-day moving averages. The limited rise and positive momentum over the past 24 hours indicate that upside risk continues in the short term. However, the extent to which the increase in inflation expectations is priced in is uncertain; therefore, the movement may remain limited. Overall, the upward trend stands out in the 1-3 day horizon.