CBRT September 2026 Survey: Inflation Expectation Rises, USD/TRY Forecast Declines

In the CBRT survey, the rise in inflation expectations is a negative signal for the TL, but the decline in the USD/TRY forecast creates a mixed picture in the short term. Technical indicators show that the price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, and the RSI at 64.6 is approaching overbought territory but has not yet confirmed. The MACD being above its signal line and positive supports short-term upward momentum. Deterioration in inflation expectations could increase depreciation pressure on the TL, which may create a limited upward trend in USDTRY. However, the survey's lower USD/TRY forecast and the high RSI level may limit upside potential; therefore, I foresee a moderate upward outlook.

The rise in inflation expectations in the CBRT survey could create depreciation pressure on the TL and increase upside risk in EURTRY. However, the decline in the USD/TRY forecast is a mixed signal for the TL and may limit the impact. Technical indicators point to a sideways trend: RSI at 51 is neutral, price is very close to SMA20 and SMA50, and MACD is slightly above the signal line. In this view, the news impact may be limited and a slight upward trend is likely in the 1-3 day horizon. Nevertheless, uncertainty persists due to divergence in institutional expectations.