IEA Warns Oil Demand Could Fall Further as Iran War Drags On

The IEA's warning that oil demand could fall further if the Iran war drags on points more to demand weakness than supply concerns, potentially creating downward pressure on Brent. The price is trading at 104.87, below the 20-day SMA (107.12), and although it has risen 2.44% in 24 hours, this rebound may be limited. The RSI at 44.9 is in neutral-weak territory and below the MACD signal line, indicating weakening momentum. The 50-day SMA (103.50) can be watched as short-term support; a drop below this level would increase selling pressure. The news impact carries uncertainty due to volatility tied to geopolitical headlines, so confidence should be kept moderate.

The IEA's warning that oil demand could fall further despite the prolonged Iran war creates short-term downside risk for XOM. However, the stock has risen 3.25% in the last 24 hours and the RSI at 63.5 is approaching overbought territory, increasing the potential for some pullback. The MACD is above the signal line and the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, so the technical picture remains positive. Although the news flow highlights demand concerns, geopolitical risks could provide supply-side support. Therefore, the impact may be limited and downward; additional confirmation is needed for a definitive decline.

The IEA's warning that oil demand could fall further despite the prolonged Iran war may create downward pressure on crude oil prices, which could negatively affect the revenue expectations of integrated oil companies like Chevron (CVX). Technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 54.5 is neutral, MACD is slightly below the signal line (0.79 vs 0.89), and the price is just above the SMA20 and SMA50. Despite a 1.96% rise in the last 24 hours, the news flow increases short-term downside risk. However, the bearish signal is weak; the news impact may be limited, and the price could fluctuate around $212. In the 1-3 day outlook, I expect a slight downward bias, but additional confirmation is needed for a definitive decline.

The IEA's warning that oil demand could fall further as the Iran war drags on is a negative signal in the short term for integrated oil companies like BP. However, BP shares have risen over 5% in the last 24 hours and the RSI is at 72.7, in overbought territory; this could limit the impact of the news. The MACD is still above the signal line and the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, so the technical picture is strong in the short term. Nevertheless, demand concerns could weigh on oil prices and weaken BP's profit expectations. Therefore, the 1-3 day direction is downward, but the decline is likely to be limited.