US August Inflation Announced: CPI Rose 0.4% Monthly

The US August CPI monthly increase of 0.4% appears to have come in slightly above or near expectations; this could strengthen the perception that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts, potentially supporting the DXY in the short term. Technical indicators already point to a moderate upward trend: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI at 59 has not approached overbought territory, and the MACD is in positive territory. However, the MACD is slightly below its signal line and the 24-hour change is limited; therefore, the upside potential is not strong. The impact of the inflation data may remain limited, and the market may await Fed communication. In the short term, a moderate upward move toward the 99.50 resistance is possible, but a sustained breakout would require additional confirmation.

The US August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, close to expectations; this does not provide a clear signal for the Fed's rate path, so it may have a mixed short-term impact on GLD. Technical indicators show RSI14 at 32.3, near oversold territory, and MACD in negative territory, but the latest close rose 0.77% in 24 hours, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. The fact that the price is well above the SMA20 and SMA50 (4349.9 vs. 401.6 and 403.4) suggests inconsistency in the data set, so moving average signals should be approached with caution. The impact of inflation data on gold typically works through real interest rate expectations; a 0.4% increase does not paint a picture of either strong disinflation or runaway inflation. Therefore, in the 1-3 day horizon, the direction is uncertain, and a neutral stance appears more realistic.

August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month may have come in slightly above expectations or at the upper bound; this could delay the Fed's rate cut timeline and thus suppress risk appetite. SPX has already fallen 1.58% in 24 hours, RSI at 29.8 is near oversold territory, and MACD is below the signal line in negative territory; so the technical picture is weak in the short term. Oversold conditions may trigger bargain hunting, but if bond yields and the dollar react upward after the inflation data, additional selling pressure could build on the index. In the 1-3 day window, I assess that downside risk is somewhat more dominant, but volatility will remain high after the sharp decline. Nevertheless, it is early to declare a trend reversal based on a single data point; the 7550-7600 band should be watched as critical support.

The US August CPI came in slightly above expectations or at the upper bound with a 0.4% monthly increase; this could heighten concerns that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts, potentially pressuring risk assets. NDX has already fallen 1.27% in 24 hours, with RSI at 32 approaching oversold territory and MACD trending negatively below the signal line; short-term downward momentum may continue. However, oversold conditions and the close around 29,100 below the 20 and 50-day moving averages also bring the possibility of a limited rebound with reaction buying. Nevertheless, due to increased uncertainty over the inflation data's impact on the rate path, the 1-3 day outlook is skewed to the downside. Investors should monitor Fed members' statements and movements in bond yields.