US Inflation Data: Core Price Increase Exceeds Expectations

The US core inflation exceeding expectations may pressure tech stocks amid concerns that the Fed could delay interest rate cuts. GOOGL is already trading weakly, down 1.7% in 24 hours, and its price is below the SMA20 and SMA50. The RSI is around 45, neutral, but the MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, indicating weak momentum. In the short term, support around $330 may be tested; a break below this level could accelerate the decline. However, the news impact may be limited as the market is partly accustomed to inflation surprises.

The US core inflation exceeding expectations could signal that the Fed may delay or be more cautious about interest rate cuts, which could have a positive short-term effect on the DXY. Technical indicators also support this view: although RSI at 68.6 is approaching overbought territory, there is no confirmation yet, MACD is slightly above the signal line, and the price is trading above the 20 and 50-day moving averages. However, the high RSI level indicates limited upside potential and profit-taking may occur. Therefore, in the 1-3 day outlook, I expect a moderate upward trend, but volatility may increase.

The higher-than-expected US core inflation could be interpreted as potentially delaying Fed rate cuts or prompting a more hawkish stance, which creates short-term downward pressure on gold prices. However, GLD's latest close at 4358.47 showed a 0.97% increase over 24 hours, and with an RSI of 32.3, it is near oversold territory, indicating that the decline may be limited. The MACD is negative and below the signal line, indicating weak momentum. The SMA20 and SMA50 are at 401.57 and 403.39, respectively, well above the price, increasing the risk of a return to the averages. Overall, the news is negative for gold, but considering oversold conditions and the recent daily gain, the decline is expected to be limited.

Core inflation exceeding expectations could suppress risk appetite on concerns that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts. SPX has already fallen 1.58% in 24 hours and is near oversold territory with an RSI of 29.8, increasing the likelihood of short-term rebound buying. However, the MACD is below the signal line and the price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a weak technical outlook. An inflation surprise could deepen selling pressure, but oversold conditions may limit the decline. Therefore, although the direction is downward, confidence is moderate.