Fed Rate Hike Probability Exceeds 85% Five Days Before FOMC Meeting

The probability of a Fed rate hike exceeding 85% is a negative signal for risky assets in the short term. JST has already fallen 1.86% in 24 hours, and the RSI at 37.8 indicates weak momentum. The MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line, suggesting that downward pressure may continue. The price is trading below the SMA20 and SMA50, confirming that the short-term trend is down. However, since the RSI is not approaching oversold territory, a moderate weakening is expected rather than a sharp decline.

The probability of a Fed rate hike exceeding 85% could suppress risk appetite in the short term and create downward pressure on the SPX. However, this expectation may be largely priced in; indeed, the index has declined 0.69% in the last 24 hours, and the MACD is in negative territory, slightly above the signal line. The RSI is at 55, in neutral territory, and does not signal oversold conditions. The price is above the SMA20 but below the SMA50, indicating that medium-term resistance persists despite short-term recovery efforts. With 5 days until the meeting, volatility may increase; therefore, a bearish but limited-confidence outlook stands out.

The probability of a Fed rate hike exceeding 85% could create downward pressure on the NDX in the short term. Technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 53 is neutral, but MACD is negative and the price is just above the SMA20/SMA50. The 0.5% decline in the last 24 hours may indicate that the news is starting to be priced in. Rate hike expectations could create selling pressure on tech stocks. However, additional confirmation is needed for a definitive decline.

The probability of a Fed rate hike exceeding 85% is a supportive factor for the DXY in the short term. However, technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI at 46 is in neutral territory, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is slightly below the SMA20. This suggests that the positive impact of the news may be limited and selling pressure could emerge at resistance levels. Nevertheless, with strong rate hike expectations, the likelihood of an upward movement in DXY is higher. I expect a moderate rise in the 1-3 day horizon, but the 99.10-99.20 resistance zone is critical.