Fed Rate Hike Nearly Certain; Clarity Act Vote Approaches

The near certainty of a Fed rate hike could suppress risk appetite in the short term and create downward pressure on the SPX. However, with the price above the SMA20 and very close to the SMA50, the RSI at 56 in neutral-positive territory, and the MACD above its signal line, the resistance appears limited. The Clarity Act vote could reduce regulatory uncertainty, so its impact may be mixed. Overall, the news flow is slightly negative, but the technical picture is not completely broken. Therefore, I expect a downward bias over a 1-3 day horizon, but a limited pullback is more likely than a sharp decline.

The near certainty of a Fed rate hike is a negative factor for NDX in the short term, as higher rates pressure growth stock valuations. However, with the price trading above the SMA20 and SMA50 and the RSI at 55 in neutral territory, it suggests the market may have largely priced in this news. The MACD being below its signal line but in negative territory is a weak momentum sign. The Clarity Act vote could provide limited support to crypto-related tech stocks by reducing regulatory uncertainty. Overall, I expect downside risk to have increased somewhat, but rather than a sharp decline, I anticipate a volatile course.

The near certainty of a Fed rate hike is a positive factor for the DXY; however, the market may have largely priced this in. Technical indicators are mixed: RSI at 55 is neutral, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is very close to the SMA20. The Clarity Act vote could reduce regulatory uncertainty and provide limited support for the dollar. In the short term, I expect a slight upward trend, but the movement is likely to remain limited.

The near certainty of a Fed rate hike is a negative factor for gold prices, as a rate increase raises the opportunity cost of holding gold and strengthens the dollar. However, the RSI is at 45, in neutral territory, and the MACD is slightly above the signal line in negative territory, which does not give an oversold signal. The fact that the SMA20 and SMA50 are around 400 indicates that the current price (4366) is well above these averages, which increases the risk of a short-term correction. The Clarity Act vote, being related to cryptocurrencies, will have limited direct impact on GLD. Overall, the news flow may create downward pressure, but since technical indicators give mixed signals, the decline is expected to be limited.