As Fed Rate Decision Approaches, Rate Hike Expectations Reach 90% in Markets

The Fed rate hike expectation reaching 90% could strengthen the dollar and create short-term pressure on Brent crude. The price has fallen nearly 4% in 24 hours to 104.61 and has dropped below the 20-day moving average (105.46). The RSI at 46 is in neutral-weak territory and is below the MACD signal line, indicating that downward momentum may continue. However, the 50-day average (104.50) may provide support just below; a break below this level could accelerate the decline. Overall, the news flow and technical outlook increase downside risk in the short term.

Before the Fed interest rate decision, the market's expectation of a rate hike reaching 90% could create upward pressure on the DXY in the short term. However, technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI at 54 is neutral, MACD is slightly below the signal line, and the price is almost at the same level as the SMA20. The change over the last 24 hours has been flat, and the market appears to have largely priced in the rate hike. Therefore, the impact of the news may be limited; a clear breakout in the DXY would require an additional trigger. Although there is a slight upward bias in the short term, there is a risk of a sharp pullback after the decision due to 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' dynamics.