Iran: 3 UAVs Shot Down in Strait of Hormuz

The downing of a drone in the Strait of Hormuz could heighten geopolitical tensions and exert short-term upward pressure on Brent crude amid supply disruption concerns. However, the price has fallen 4.1% in the last 24 hours to $103.13, with RSI at 41 indicating weakness and MACD in negative territory; the technical picture is already bearish. The news-driven reaction may be limited, and a sustained reversal is difficult unless resistance at $104.78 (SMA20) is breached. Although there is a risk of escalation in the Middle East, the market has so far not seen any concrete step that would disrupt supply. Therefore, a moderate upward reaction is possible for 1-3 days, but confidence is low.

The downing of a drone in the Strait of Hormuz could heighten the geopolitical risk premium, creating short-term upward pressure on WTI. The price is above the SMA20 and SMA50 at 104.77, and the RSI at 63.8 is approaching overbought territory; MACD is positive above the signal line. However, the impact of the news may be limited because no actual supply disruption has been confirmed yet. In the 1-3 day outlook, an upward trend is possible, but the 106-107 resistance zone and potential profit-taking could cap the rally. Be prepared for increased volatility.