Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023

The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 is a positive short-term catalyst for the DXY. The current technical picture also supports this direction: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI at 58 has not approached overbought territory, and the MACD is slightly above the signal line. However, if the rate hike triggers growth concerns or the market has already priced it in, the upward movement may be limited. In the 1-3 day horizon, I expect a moderate upward trend in the dollar index, but the 100 level should be watched as critical resistance.

The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 is generally a negative signal for gold prices, as a rate increase strengthens the dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, GLD's recent close at 4335.225 is well above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating it is near overbought territory. The RSI is neutral at 52, while the MACD is negative below its signal line, suggesting weak momentum. The news could create short-term selling pressure, but the price's significant deviation from its moving averages increases the likelihood of a correction. Nevertheless, the impact of the rate hike may be limited, as the market may have largely priced it in.

The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 could be seen as a hawkish surprise for the market and may weigh on risk appetite in the short term. The SPX closed at 7617, down 0.59% in the last 24 hours; RSI is neutral around 50, but MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line. The price is slightly above the SMA20 but below the SMA50, signaling short-term weakness. With the rate hike news, a test of the 7600 support and a possible breakdown may be expected. However, the reaction could remain limited depending on inflation and growth data; therefore, I avoid making a definitive direction forecast.

The Fed's surprise rate hike could create upward pressure on USDTRY; however, the exchange rate is already moving sideways at 48.65 and the RSI is at 53, which is neutral. The MACD is very close to the signal line, indicating that the current momentum is weak. The rate hike decision could cause depreciation of the Turkish lira, but the market may have already priced it in. In the short term, the 48.70-48.80 resistance zone may be tested. Nevertheless, the reaction may be limited, as technical indicators do not give overbought or oversold signals.