Decline in CBRT Reserves Extends to Fourth Week

The extension of the decline in CBRT reserves into a fourth week is a development that could put pressure on the Turkish lira, creating upside risk for the GBPTRY pair. However, technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI is at 60, near the neutral-overbought zone, MACD is slightly below the signal line, and the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50. The change over the last 24 hours has been very limited (0.05%), so the market has not yet determined a clear direction. Although the reserve loss news is likely to push GBPTRY higher on expectations of lira depreciation, the weak momentum in the technical outlook suggests the impact will remain limited and volatile. In the short term, movement within the 65.30-65.50 band carries the risk of an upward breakout depending on news flow.

The extension of the decline in CBRT reserves into a fourth week could heighten market players' perception of pressure on the Turkish lira and create upside risk for USDTRY. However, the latest close is hovering around 48.80, with a 24-hour change of only +0.05; RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, while MACD is slightly below its signal line. This picture suggests that the news may already be priced in or that its impact will remain limited. In the short term, if the 48.75-48.85 band holds, directional uncertainty may persist; nevertheless, if reserve losses continue, the depreciation trend in the lira could strengthen. Therefore, I anticipate a cautious upward bias, but confidence is low.

The extension of the decline in the CBRT's reserves into a fourth week could create depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira and support the EURTRY pair upwards. Technical indicators also support this view: although the RSI at 65 has approached overbought territory, it has not yet generated a sell signal, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The limited rise in the last 24 hours and the news of reserve losses suggest that the upward trend may continue in the short term. However, due to the high RSI level and the possibility that the news is already priced in, it is necessary not to ignore the risk of a potential correction and that the rise may remain limited. Nevertheless, under current conditions, the probability of an upward movement in the 1-3 day horizon appears higher.