Iran's statement on Strait of Hormuz: Reopening depends on conditions

Iran's statement regarding the Strait of Hormuz keeps the risk of supply disruption alive, creating potential for a geopolitical premium. However, the price has fallen sharply by 7.8% over the past 24 hours, with the RSI at 19.6 in oversold territory and the MACD in negative territory. While this combination increases the likelihood of a short-term rebound buying, the trend remains weak. Since the news does not contain a concrete decision to close the strait, its impact may remain limited. I expect a mild upward reaction over the next 1-3 days, with low confidence.

WTI crude fell sharply by more than 7% in 24 hours to 96.59, with the RSI at 21 placing it in oversold territory; this increases the likelihood of short-term bargain hunting. Iran's statement on conditionally opening the Strait of Hormuz does not completely eliminate the risk of supply disruptions and could restore part of the geopolitical premium. However, the price is clearly below the SMA20 and SMA50, and the MACD is in negative territory below its signal line; the trend is weak. The news headline alone does not provide a strong directional signal, so the impact may be limited and volatile. A mild upward reaction is expected in the short term, but a sustained recovery requires additional supply/geopolitical confirmation.