Marvell to Acquire Lumentum for $115 Billion

MRVL has already fallen 28% in 24 hours and is in oversold territory with an RSI of 19; this could set the stage for short-term bargain hunting. However, the $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum represents a significant debt/financing burden and integration risk for the company; the market generally prices such large and expensive deals negatively. The MACD is below its signal line and the price is well below the SMA20/SMA50, indicating a weak trend. Due to the oversold condition, some of the sharp decline may be retraced, but the uncertainty created by the news limits upward movement. Therefore, I see a higher probability that downward pressure will continue in the short term.

The news of Marvell's $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum provides a strong M&A premium signal for LITE and could push the share price higher on the news flow. However, the stock has fallen 19.9% in the last 24 hours, with an RSI of 24 indicating oversold conditions and MACD in negative territory; this suggests that short-term rebound buying may come with sharp volatility. The price is trading well below the SMA20 and SMA50, meaning the technical picture is weak and the impact of the news may be limited. Due to uncertainty over whether the deal will be finalized and the regulatory approval process, the direction is not clear; I foresee a cautious upward bias. In the short term, news-driven volatility will be high.

COHR is currently under significant selling pressure: a 12.7% decline in 24 hours, an RSI of 34 close to the oversold threshold, and a negative MACD below the signal line. Marvell’s acquisition of Lumentum is likely to accelerate consolidation in the optical components sector, heightening competition and customer‑loss concerns for COHR, which could be perceived negatively in the short term. However, the news does not directly target COHR and may lift valuation multiples across the sector. Oversold conditions could create a floor for reactionary buying, leaving directional uncertainty high. In the near term, downward pressure on COHR appears more probable.