Marvell Expands AI Push with $115 Billion Lumentum Deal

MRVL stock fell sharply by 31% in 24 hours to $171, with the RSI at 17.6, placing it in oversold territory; this increases the likelihood of a short-term rebound. Although the $115 billion Lumentum deal strengthens the AI narrative, the market appears not to have priced it in yet, and the MACD remains negative and below the signal line. Since the price is significantly below the SMA20 and SMA50, the trend is still downward. Combined with the positive catalyst from the news and oversold conditions, a limited recovery is possible in the 1-3 day horizon, but confidence is low. Volatility may remain high after the sharp decline, and caution is advised until the news's actual impact becomes clear.

The news does not directly concern GOOGL but announces a merger agreement involving Marvell and Lumentum; therefore, its impact on GOOGL is indirect and limited. Increased investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure may slightly support sector sentiment, but it is not a concrete catalyst for GOOGL's own operations. The technical outlook is weak: the price has fallen 13.8% in 24 hours, is below the SMA20 and SMA50, and the MACD is in negative territory. The RSI at 30.8 is near the oversold threshold; a short-term rebound is possible, but the trend is downward. Thus, the news-technical combination does not produce a clear direction, and a neutral stance is appropriate.

LITE shares fell sharply by more than 24% within 24 hours to the 684 level; RSI14 stands at 20.9, placing it in oversold territory, while MACD is negative and clearly below its signal line. The price is well below SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a weak short-term trend. Marvell's acquisition of Lumentum could create additional near-term pressure on LITE as a source of merger arbitrage and uncertainty; however, oversold conditions may set the stage for rebound buying. Therefore, although the direction is biased lower, confidence should be kept at a moderate level.

The news concerns Marvell's acquisition of Lumentum and is not a direct catalyst for COHR; however, AI-focused consolidation of optical components in the sector could create an indirect competitive/perception effect for COHR. COHR is already under severe selling pressure: a 15.7% decline in 24 hours, RSI at 29.5 in oversold territory, and price clearly below SMA20/SMA50. MACD is negative and below the signal line, with weak short-term momentum. Although oversold conditions may set the stage for rebound buying, the news's net positive reflection on COHR is uncertain. Therefore, for 1-3 days, I expect a neutral direction with high volatility.