Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Adds €127 Billion to EU Costs

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create a severe contraction in global energy supply, putting upward pressure on oil prices. This would increase inflationary risks, particularly in importer economies such as Europe, and reduce risk appetite. Negative effects are expected on the current account deficit and inflation in energy-importing countries like Turkey; selling pressure may be seen in equity and bond markets. In the short term, a downward trend and increased volatility are anticipated in global markets.

News of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could create upward pressure on Brent by bringing the risk of supply disruption back to the fore. However, the price has fallen 1.9% over the past 24 hours and the RSI is at 51, in neutral territory; MACD is negative but above its signal line, which is a weak recovery signal. The price is trading above the SMA20 (105.2) but below the SMA50 (108.7), meaning the short-term outlook is uncertain. Although the news is likely to create a geopolitical risk premium, it should be kept in mind that the market may have already priced it in. Therefore, I expect a moderate upward trend over the next 1-3 days, with a medium confidence level.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create a significant contraction in crude oil supply, making it a positive catalyst for integrated energy companies like XOM. However, the stock currently has a weak technical picture: the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI at 39 is near the oversold zone, and the MACD is below its signal line. Therefore, the news may have a limited upward impact and may not reverse the current downtrend. Although short-term buying interest may emerge, moving averages around $183 will act as resistance. I expect a cautious upward bias, but volume and the price rising above the SMA20 should be monitored for confirmation.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening crude oil supply and pushing energy prices higher; this supports margin and revenue expectations for integrated oil companies like Chevron. However, CVX's price is below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, RSI at 37 indicates weakness, and MACD is below the signal line; the technical picture is cautious in the short term. Although the news impact is positive across the sector, stock-specific weak momentum may limit the upside. Therefore, I anticipate a slightly positive bias, but confidence is low.